The key lies in the radars and missiles.
The aerial confrontation between Pakistan and India was indeed a clash between the Western military complex and China. And although France lost this engagement, the blame should not rest on the Rafale.
A J-10C from the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
On May 7, 2025, an aerial confrontation between India and Pakistan over Kashmir marked an unexpected milestone in the history of aviation: the J-10C Vigorous Dragon fighters, manufactured by China and operated by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), may have shot down up to three French Rafale aircraft from the Indian Air Force (IAF), in addition to a Russian MiG-29 and a Su-30. This is the first time that Western and Chinese weaponry has faced each other on the battlefield, and no one anticipated this Asian superiority.
Both sides offer their own version of events, but they both agree on the outcome. India has confirmed that its air force suffered losses, though it has not specified which aircraft were shot down. But how could the J-10C have downed one of the best Western fighters? As noted by the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post, there are several reasons. Starting with the type of aircraft — a pure interceptor — and ending with the missile used by the J-10C, while also considering the type of missile that the Rafale did not use.
Radar and Missiles: The Chinese Advantage
Both fighters belong to the so-called 4.5 generation, with significant improvements over previous models but not reaching the radar invisibility standard of the fifth generation, such as the American F-35 or the Chinese J-20. The first difference that could impact the combat is that the Rafale may have a worse radar than the J-10C. Manufactured by Dassault, the French multirole fighter uses an RBE2-AA AESA-type radar, a system that electronically scans the space with greater accuracy than traditional radars. The French radar has a 600 mm diameter antenna and can detect targets at 200 kilometers. The J-10C features an AESA radar that, although specifications regarding its range are not available, is known to have an antenna larger than 700 mm. This, in theory, provides a greater scanning surface and the ability to identify targets at longer distances than that of the Rafale.
French Rafales. (Reuters)
Another critical difference may be the integration of systems. The Pakistani J-10Cs operate within a homogeneous Chinese defense network—ground radars, early warning aircraft, and data links—while Indian Rafales must coordinate with Russian, Israeli, and French equipment, a technological puzzle that may slow their response time. Moreover, Pakistan claims that its electronic warfare systems incapacitated the Rafale sensors, forcing them to withdraw during an incident on April 29. These two factors suggest that the Pakistanis may have an advantage in detecting their targets and launching missiles before the Indians. And here lies the key element: the combat may have been decided much earlier than the Rafales detected the Pakistani fighters.
The Chinese J-10C Vigorous Dragon.
TThe evidence seems to indicate that Pakistan’s J-10C aircraft utilized the Chinese PL-15E missile, which has a range of 145 km (less than the Chinese version, which has a range of 300 kilometers) and reaches a speed of Mach 5. It also seems that the Indian Rafale aircraft were not equipped with the Meteor missile, which can reach 200 kilometers and features a rocket-ramjet engine that maintains speed and maneuverability for a longer duration, making it ideal for pursuing moving targets. As noted by the SCMP, ‘some images taken by witnesses of what appeared to be the wreckage of the Indian Rafale indicate that it was equipped with an infrared air-to-air MICA missile, which has a range of only 60-80 km.’
Meteor Missile.
And there seems to lie the key to India’s defeat and the Rafale: although the latter has nearly double the armament capacity of the J-10C, the Indian aircraft were equipped for bombing ground installations. With such limited air-to-air missile capability, it makes sense that they succumbed to the PL-15E of the Pakistanis. The outcome of the combat was determined at the very moment the Indians decided on the armament of their aircraft.
Pure interceptor against multi-role hunting.
Powered by a single Chinese WS-10B engine with a thrust of 130-140 kilonewtons, the J-10C operates at altitudes of up to 18,000 meters, compared to the 16,000 meters of the Rafale, which has two M88 engines, each providing 75 kilonewtons of thrust. Both can reach Mach 1.8; however, the J-10C climbs to higher altitudes more rapidly than the Rafale and can engage targets from a superior altitude. The French fighter has greater range—1,850 km with additional fuel tanks, nearly double that of the J-10C, which has a range of 1,240 km—but this information does not contribute to this specific engagement.
The incident has had global ramifications. China, traditionally discreet about its military technology, witnessed a 30% increase in the stock of the J-10C manufacturer — Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group — following the conflict. For Beijing, the Indo-Pakistani conflict is a double-edged sword. Pakistan, its strategic ally and main arms buyer, demonstrated the effectiveness of Chinese materials. However, China is cautious about igniting tensions with India, with which it has border disputes. As Shi Yinhong, an expert from Renmin University, points out to SCMP: ‘An open war in the region would jeopardize the stability that China needs in light of its own challenges, such as Taiwan or its rivalry with the U.S.’
There are no news reports indicating that India plans to cancel its fleet of 26 new Rafale jets—a recently signed contract worth $7.4 billion— but the shadow of the J-10C looms over a market dominated by the West: Egypt and other countries have expressed interest in the Chinese fighter, sold for $50 million per unit, which is nearly one-third of the cost of a Rafale, priced at around $115 million. At the very least, the Indians will be more cautious next time they equip their Rafales and will not leave the Meteor, which could have outperformed the J-10C, on the ground. Meanwhile, NATO—particularly the United States—will be analyzing all the data it can for its simulations of a potential armed confrontation with China in the Pacific theater.