Preparation is not only technical, but strategic: a return to industrial warfare scenarios that had not been seen on the continent since 1945.
Russia’s incursions into European airspace last week in Poland, Romania, and Estonia have been followed by another in Denmark, with chaotic consequences for airlines. NATO has raised its voice as Moscow appears to be testing allied cohesion in the Baltic. In the background: a series of movements that indicate two things: anxiety has skyrocketed in Europe, and some are beginning to prepare for a war scenario.
Denmark can’t believe it. Denmark has described the drone incursions that forced the closure of Copenhagen and Oslo airports for hours, leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded, as an «unprecedented attack.» This episode is part of a wave of airspace violations and drone attacks in recent days on Poland, Romania, and Estonia. The aircraft appeared from multiple directions, flashing lights and then disappearing, and Danish authorities attribute them to «a capable operator,» while the Kremlin denies this.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described it as the «most serious» attack on Denmark’s critical infrastructure and did not rule out any possibilities, an opinion supported by leaders such as Ukrainian President Zelensky and EU spokespeople, who see a pattern of reckless actions by Russia. NATO held meetings under Article 4, condemned the violations, and stressed that it will strengthen capabilities and deterrence, with some officials already considering the possibility of more forceful responses (including shoot-downs) if these provocations are repeated.
France and the preparations. In France, controversy has erupted following a publication in Le Canard enchaîné, which revealed a letter sent in July by Health Minister Catherine Vautrin asking French health agencies to prepare for a possible «major commitment» in March 2026. The document urged hospitals to be ready to care for several thousand soldiers for periods ranging from 10 to 180 days, including both French and foreign troops.
Despite coming from a satirical source, the news sparked accusations on social media that Emmanuel Macron was secretly planning to take the country to war against Russia. The far right, represented by MEP Thierry Mariani, went even further by suggesting that a conflict would allow the 2027 presidential elections to be suspended.
The official clarification. The Ministry of Health did not deny the authenticity of the letter, but clarified its purpose: it was a preventive plan against possible risks and threats that could affect the hospital system, including the arrival of a large number of victims of an international conflict.
According to the ministerial crisis center, the measure sought to ensure the capacity of the civilian healthcare system to absorb a massive influx of military patients in the event that France, as a member of NATO and an ally of Ukraine, became indirectly involved in a war scenario. It was not, therefore, a war plan per se, but rather an exercise in anticipating contingencies.
Germany and the preparations. Germany has begun to explicitly plan how to deal with a possible large-scale conflict between NATO and Russia, a scenario that many analysts within the alliance predict will occur around 2029.
Reuters explained that the calculation behind this preparation is as sobering as it is disturbing: up to 1,000 wounded German soldiers per day could require medical attention in the event of open confrontation, a figure that the Inspector General of Health, Ralf Hoffmann, himself describes as realistic based on the intensity of the fighting and the units involved. as realistic based on the intensity of the fighting and the units involved.
Lessons from Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has radically changed the nature of injuries. Whereas gunshot wounds used to predominate, today the landscape is dominated by the devastating effects of drones, loitering munitions, and explosives, which cause amputations, burns, and multiple traumas.
Hoffmann emphasizes that the ten-kilometer «death corridor» on either side of the Ukrainian front, plagued by hostile UAVs, shows how immediate medical evacuations have become nearly impossible: the wounded often have to be stabilized for hours under constant fire before they can be transported.
How to evacuate. With this in mind, Berlin is considering expanding its flexible medical transport capabilities, drawing inspiration from Ukraine’s experience with hospital trains. It is considering incorporating trains, buses, and a greater number of medical aircraft, with the aim of ensuring staggered evacuations: initial care at the front, intermediate stabilization, and final transfer to hospitals within German territory.
This medical logistics chain requires a robust, decentralized system capable of operating under aerial and electronic threat. The plan envisages that the wounded will receive definitive care mainly in civilian hospitals, with an estimated 15,000 beds reserved out of a total national capacity of 440,000. Coordination between the military medical service and the civilian health system will be essential, and the Armed Forces’ medical corps, currently numbering 15,000, will need to be significantly expanded to meet the scale of the challenge.
The Kremlin and Article 5. The Financial Times explained that this climate of extreme anxiety in Europe is possibly a response to a tactic by Moscow: to demonstrate that NATO’s collective defense clause, Article 5, has no real value. A hesitant response to provocation could open the door for Russia to try to «break off» small European states without confronting the bloc as a whole.
Scenarios such as a ground incursion under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities in the Baltic countries are part of the recurring fears of military planners. To this end, Moscow is counting on the uncertainty surrounding Washington, whose contribution represents around 40% of the Alliance’s military capabilities in Europe.
The Trump unknown. The US factor is decisive. With HIMARS artillery units and tank companies already deployed in the Baltic, the military presence is significant, but the key question is what Donald Trump would do in the event of open aggression.
The mistrust is mutual: in Washington, some see the Baltics as overly ideological and aggressive toward Moscow, while in Tallinn, the US vote alongside Russia at the UN is remembered as a warning sign. The president’s volatility adds an unpredictable element: just as he surprised everyone by authorizing attacks on Iran, he could react unexpectedly in a crisis in Eastern Europe.
Between fear and dependence. The major European powers are firm in their condemnation of Russia, but they shy away from imagining a confrontation without US military backing. The idea of an exclusively European «reinsurance» force is met with doubts about its effectiveness without Washington’s «umbrella.»
Even so, the reality is that British, French, German, Canadian, Polish, and Finnish troops are deployed in the region and would likely come to the defense of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, aware that their own security depends on the fate of these small states.
Conclusion: prevention. Although an open attack on a NATO member would be an extremely risky gamble, the precedent set in 2022, when the Kremlin ordered the offensive against Kyiv despite the enormous risks, shows that Moscow is capable of playing with fire.
Neither France nor Germany are planning a war, but they are preparing for an undesirable scenario within an increasingly unstable European environment. In the case of Paris, hospital preparations reflect a pragmatic view of national defense, aware that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated how quickly a conflict can overwhelm entire healthcare systems.
For Germany, this planning sends a message: it recognizes the possibility of a direct clash with Russia and assumes that, if this were to happen, the scale of casualties would require the mobilization of its entire national medical infrastructure. The preparation is not only technical, but also strategic: it means accepting that European defense in the event of Russian aggression will require a total effort from its societies, a return to industrial war scenarios that have not been contemplated on the continent since 1945.
