Admiral Samuel Paparo’s warning about the challenges the U.S. Air Force faces in maintaining air supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly against China’s growing military capabilities. Paparo highlighted China’s advancements, such as over 2,100 fighter jets, strategic H-6 bombers, and increasing production rates of fourth and fifth-generation aircraft. This situation raises concerns about the ability of the U.S. to ensure regional defense and support allies like Japan and Taiwan. The admiral emphasized the need for temporary air control windows, advanced technologies like drones and stealth systems, and stronger defenses for U.S. bases in the region. The issue reflects broader geopolitical tensions and China’s military expansion.
The ability of the United States to achieve air supremacy in the strategic «first island chain» of the Indo-Pacific is seriously compromised by the growing power of the Chinese Air Force. This was warned by Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), in a recent hearing before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee.
According to Paparo, in the event of a military conflict, neither China nor the United States would be able to achieve total air supremacy in the region. The claim is significant considering that, for decades, air dominance has been one of the pillars of U.S. military power. However, conditions have changed substantially with technological progress and the pace of arms production in the Asian giant.
During his presentation, the admiral stressed that China has developed an air force of worrying dimensions: more than 2,100 fighters, 200 H-6 strategic bombers and an aircraft production rate that exceeds the US by a ratio of 1.2 to 1. Although many of its platforms still correspond to previous generations, the increase in fourth and fifth generation aircraft is sustained and shows an upward trend. In addition, China continues to work on next-generation fighter designs that could further widen this gap.
Added to this is the deployment of long-range air-to-air missiles and a systematic focus on building air defense systems capable of neutralizing strategic facilities of the U.S. and its allies in the western Pacific, such as poorly defended air bases, radars, and command centers. These capabilities make U.S. air operations increasingly difficult in a combat theater under constant electronic surveillance and saturated with threats.
Paparo stressed that «ceding air supremacy is not an option» if the United States is to maintain its regional defense capability and support for key allies such as Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. However, he acknowledged that the new air combat paradigm will not necessarily guarantee control of airspace for the entire duration of the conflict. On the contrary, a dynamic of «temporary windows of air supremacy» is expected, in which it will seek to execute specific tactical effects before withdrawing or reconfiguring operations.
This approach puts at the center of the debate the importance of technologies such as unmanned aerial systems, stealth platforms, and electronic warfare capabilities. It also highlights the urgent need to strengthen defenses at U.S. air bases in the Indo-Pacific, today considered vulnerable to a possible attack by ballistic and cruise missiles launched from mainland China. In this regard, lawmakers and defense experts have warned that the Pentagon is not investing enough in «hardening» its facilities in the region or in modernizing its immediate response capacity to a possible Chinese first attack. Some estimates even suggest that Beijing would be in a better position to devastate the U.S. air force in theater than the other way around.
Despite this bleak outlook, Paparo emphasized that the Indo-Pacific Command is not without options. Its objective will be to «dispute air superiority, protect forces deployed on the first island chain, such as the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force, and create air control windows to achieve decisive effects».
The admiral’s statements are part of a geostrategic context marked by the acceleration of Chinese rearmament, the militarisation of the South China Sea and growing tensions over Taiwan’s status. On that board, air supremacy — once an undisputed U.S. advantage — is now a disputed goal.