The playoff push in MLS is on! Well, sort of.
Some teams have just six matches left in the regular season, while others have as many as eight games remaining.
MLS announced a new playoff format this season: the top nine teams from each conference qualify, although there are big incentives to finish in the top seven and miss the wild-card round or, even better, in the top four to host two games in the newly designed round one, which will be played as a best-of-three series. The conference semifinals, conference finals and MLS Cup are all one-off games hosted by the higher seed.
While the format has changed, it’s relatively easy to look back at past seasons and settle on a points target of 43 to have a reasonable expectation to get into the ninth and final spot. The final number could be one point or so higher or lower, but for now, most people around the league agree that’s a reasonable target.
So, where is everyone at as the season comes to a close? Here’s a look at teams with hopes of a postseason run, broken into tiers, starting with one of the most important distinctions:
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Teams with Messi
Lionel Messi‘s arrival to Inter Miami (28 points), and the additions of Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and even lesser-known names like Tomás Avilés, Facundo Farías and Diego Gómez has changed what seemed possible for an MLS team.
After winning Leagues Cup, Inter Miami still found themselves sitting in the basement of MLS’s Eastern Conference, needing a miracle run to have any hope of making the playoffs.
Miracles happen with Messi.
While Inter currently sit in 14th with 28 points, six back from D.C. United (34 points) in the ninth and final postseason position, an undefeated run in the four matches since MLS play resumed makes it feel foolish to bet against Messi & Co.
One of the issues for Miami is that they’ll also have to do it without Messi. They passed their first test without their talisman, though, coming from behind to beat Sporting Kansas City 3-2 on Saturday.https://www.youtube.com/embed/xGO4WvT6iVw?si=dBBadMfkhBz_5xZC&wmode=transparent
Five wins and a draw from their final eight games could be enough to do it, and with matches against direct rivals New York City FC (30 points), the Chicago Fire (32 points) and a pair of contests against Charlotte FC (31 points), there’s a possible path to the postseason — even if Inter will need help from other Eastern Conference rivals along the way.
Yet a road trip to Atlanta United (42 points) on Sept. 16 and a game at Orlando City SC (47 points) on Sept. 24 loom as reminders it won’t always be easy. Plus, while a scoreless home draw against Nashville SC (40 points) on Aug. 30 hardly put the nail in the coffin for Miami’s playoff hopes, it was a reminder of just how small the margin for error is for this team, with any dropped points at home making it that much more difficult to sneak into the playoffs and regroup once there.
They should be toast, playoffstatus.com says they have an 87% chance of missing the playoffs, but the numbers aren’t factoring in the extra boost Messi and his running buddies have given the Herons.