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The Poll

Times/Siena: Democrats +9. The economy is his, and it is killing him.

1,503 likely voters. Health care by 24. Republicans lead only on A.I. Forty-nine days.

The Rocket News · Washington Bureau · New YorkSeptember 16, 2026 · 4 min read

A mail ballot envelope in gloved hands, full color. Wire photograph.
A mail ballot envelope in gloved hands, full color. Wire photograph.

The New York Times and Siena University put Democrats nearly nine points ahead of Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. 1,503 likely voters, Sept. 8 to 13. Live interviewers. Cellphones. The Politics desk files a number the parties already know how to read: the metric that tells you who has the wind.

Trump has lost the public on cost of living. Democrats lead on health care by 24 points, and on the economy, foreign policy, immigration. Republicans hold a narrow edge only on A.I. policy. Even some Republicans, the Times wrote, have lost faith in his economy. The $5,000 dividend is still a speech. Diesel is $6.31.

Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by close to 9 percentage points.

Video

Why Our Poll Shows Democrats Leading Ahead of the Midterms · The New York Times · Watch on The New York Times

Forty-nine days. A nine-point generic does not guarantee the House, and the Senate map is still a graveyard. The Politics desk files the poll as it is: a president who is on every ballot, and a party that cannot get out from under him.

Wire and further reading: nytimes.com

Filed under Politics

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